Jerrome
09-24 05:40 PM
Scenario 1:
Assumptions on Visa Usage by EB1 + EB2 ROW
1) About the Volume of EB1+ ROW for this year
(Pending + 2010) Total GC Spill over
EB1 ALL 4050 + 4050 8100 21995
EB2 ROW 7871 + 7871 15742 10492 (Total of 32487)
2) This data is as of August 25 2009, So in the months of September and October approval for India and China assume overall 3000+2000 = 5000
3) I have not considered EB4+EB5 spill over because that would be a bonus and would result in 2-3 months variation.
4) Spill over is 50% between China and India
China would get (16223 spill over + 2387 regular), so china would become current
India would get (16223 spilover+2387 regular), so India would move to March 06
5) Let us say 3000 are un-approvable so they will move to June 06
Scenario 2:
If the volume of EB1+ROW for this year is 50% of pending then it would result of additional 6000 visas, India would move additional 6 months to December 2006.
Scenario 3:
If the volume of EB1+ROW for this year is 25% of pending then it would result of additional 9000 visas, India would move additional 6 months to May 2007.
I don�t think in any case they won�t move beyond May 2007 for EB2 India as they would not want to add more cases to the Backlog.
In my gut feel I think Scenario 1 has 60% possibility, 2 has 30% possibility and 3 has 10% possibility/
Assumptions on Visa Usage by EB1 + EB2 ROW
1) About the Volume of EB1+ ROW for this year
(Pending + 2010) Total GC Spill over
EB1 ALL 4050 + 4050 8100 21995
EB2 ROW 7871 + 7871 15742 10492 (Total of 32487)
2) This data is as of August 25 2009, So in the months of September and October approval for India and China assume overall 3000+2000 = 5000
3) I have not considered EB4+EB5 spill over because that would be a bonus and would result in 2-3 months variation.
4) Spill over is 50% between China and India
China would get (16223 spill over + 2387 regular), so china would become current
India would get (16223 spilover+2387 regular), so India would move to March 06
5) Let us say 3000 are un-approvable so they will move to June 06
Scenario 2:
If the volume of EB1+ROW for this year is 50% of pending then it would result of additional 6000 visas, India would move additional 6 months to December 2006.
Scenario 3:
If the volume of EB1+ROW for this year is 25% of pending then it would result of additional 9000 visas, India would move additional 6 months to May 2007.
I don�t think in any case they won�t move beyond May 2007 for EB2 India as they would not want to add more cases to the Backlog.
In my gut feel I think Scenario 1 has 60% possibility, 2 has 30% possibility and 3 has 10% possibility/
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GCNirvana007
09-04 12:41 AM
I mean you guys are fighting like retarded. Use your head. What you going to gain by proving your point.
No wonder so called highly skilled get treated so "highly" by USCIS.
No wonder so called highly skilled get treated so "highly" by USCIS.
gcretroiv
10-23 01:00 PM
I guess nobody answer this even they know. Probably everybody is angry on Labor substitution
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eb3_2004
02-14 03:28 PM
Here is my 2 cents on this
Lets say the interested muster around plaintiffs and sue USCIS. Also, The court agrees that USCIS did not do its duty. Will the court go to the extent of ruling over INA which clearly says that unused visa numbers cannot be recaptured? Will the courts/judicial system set such a precedent where they will go against law just because the agency failed to implement it correctly? I don't think they will set such a precedent by overruling against the law set up by congress and the President who signed it. By long shot, Can the court recommend congress to fix the situation by changing the law and by allowing recapture? Possibly. Does that help and fix our issue?
If lawsuit/court cannot make USCIS use the numbers, how can USCIS admin fix do this?.. I am not fighting here (I sent my letters already!!!)...this just came to my mind...
Lets say the interested muster around plaintiffs and sue USCIS. Also, The court agrees that USCIS did not do its duty. Will the court go to the extent of ruling over INA which clearly says that unused visa numbers cannot be recaptured? Will the courts/judicial system set such a precedent where they will go against law just because the agency failed to implement it correctly? I don't think they will set such a precedent by overruling against the law set up by congress and the President who signed it. By long shot, Can the court recommend congress to fix the situation by changing the law and by allowing recapture? Possibly. Does that help and fix our issue?
If lawsuit/court cannot make USCIS use the numbers, how can USCIS admin fix do this?.. I am not fighting here (I sent my letters already!!!)...this just came to my mind...
more...
Hassan11
07-12 09:13 AM
I am not sure if this is true or false but I thought to share. it might be a good news for July filers:
07/12/2007: USCIS Reportedly Returning Visa Numbers to DOS
AILA has reported that when Rep. Lofgren issued a letter to Secretary Chertoff, she also disclosed that "It has also come to my attention that USCIS began returning visa numbers to the State Depaartment as early as Thrusday, July 5, 2007." It could be the answer to our question why they are holding July filing cases and why they stopped adjudicating 485 cases for which they pull out the numbers before July 2, 2007. What a mess!
07/12/2007: USCIS Reportedly Returning Visa Numbers to DOS
AILA has reported that when Rep. Lofgren issued a letter to Secretary Chertoff, she also disclosed that "It has also come to my attention that USCIS began returning visa numbers to the State Depaartment as early as Thrusday, July 5, 2007." It could be the answer to our question why they are holding July filing cases and why they stopped adjudicating 485 cases for which they pull out the numbers before July 2, 2007. What a mess!
soljabhai
12-14 04:55 PM
well as of now, 15 October 2002 is the Cut-off date for ROW EB3 is not much worse than the cutoff dates for the other oversubscribed countries. (somewhere in 2001). Considering we are on the threshold of 2008
In the hypothetical scenario EB3 ROW won't be much worse. Especially since many (majority) Indian's have transferred to EB2 already.
So I don't understand how would ROW EB3 be much worse off than now.
The only "real losers" will be ROW EB2 which is current. As far as I know they are not constituents/members of IV so we should not worry about them.
In the hypothetical scenario EB3 ROW won't be much worse. Especially since many (majority) Indian's have transferred to EB2 already.
So I don't understand how would ROW EB3 be much worse off than now.
The only "real losers" will be ROW EB2 which is current. As far as I know they are not constituents/members of IV so we should not worry about them.
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amoljak
10-23 03:27 PM
Thanks eb3India.
How does the current company obtain a pre-approved labor? Does it buy the pre-app labour? Or is it SOLELY because someone in the company left (whose labor was approved)?
Labor certification means a company is certifying that they cannot find an American to do the job, lets say write a Java program. So once they certify that, they can say look we have this dude from India who can write Java programs, we want to hire him permanently. But what if the dude gets a better job or goes back to India or both...? The company still needs someone to write that Java program... they have established that they are not able to find an American to do that... so they can say this dude-2 has the same qualifications as the dude whom we originally want... so let us hire him permanently... so that is labor substitution... there is genuine business case to do that.
How does the current company obtain a pre-approved labor? Does it buy the pre-app labour? Or is it SOLELY because someone in the company left (whose labor was approved)?
Labor certification means a company is certifying that they cannot find an American to do the job, lets say write a Java program. So once they certify that, they can say look we have this dude from India who can write Java programs, we want to hire him permanently. But what if the dude gets a better job or goes back to India or both...? The company still needs someone to write that Java program... they have established that they are not able to find an American to do that... so they can say this dude-2 has the same qualifications as the dude whom we originally want... so let us hire him permanently... so that is labor substitution... there is genuine business case to do that.
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WeShallOvercome
07-11 06:17 PM
Guys.. can one of you please suggest a good Canadian PR processing company? I keep getting mails from cr@protechimmigration.com. Is Protech good?
Would really appreciate a reply.
DO NOT go through any of these agencies. they just put additional delays in your PR processing. I got my Canadian PR in 14 months without any professional help.
On an average, they will charge $3000 and cause an additional delay of 3-6 months in your case
And they are not 'PR Processing' companies. They just forward your application to the CIC.
Would really appreciate a reply.
DO NOT go through any of these agencies. they just put additional delays in your PR processing. I got my Canadian PR in 14 months without any professional help.
On an average, they will charge $3000 and cause an additional delay of 3-6 months in your case
And they are not 'PR Processing' companies. They just forward your application to the CIC.
more...
walking_dude
02-14 02:51 PM
Life's not simple. It's not A or B. It's usually A and B that succeeds. Like I mentioned in an earlier post going ahead with option A (lawsuit) closes option B ( meetings and negotiations).
Best approach is IV keeps option B (lobbying) open while a group that agrees option A is better continues to pursue it. There is a lot of support for this measure here. What it lacks is a convinced leadership! Once the leadership emerges and there is action on the ground, who knows, the skeptics may join too.
chandu...have u read the lawsuit outcome? do u still think that an administrative fix is easier to achieve than a lawsuit? lets say it comes down to either/or...either a lawsuit or an administrative fix...which one would IV support?
Best approach is IV keeps option B (lobbying) open while a group that agrees option A is better continues to pursue it. There is a lot of support for this measure here. What it lacks is a convinced leadership! Once the leadership emerges and there is action on the ground, who knows, the skeptics may join too.
chandu...have u read the lawsuit outcome? do u still think that an administrative fix is easier to achieve than a lawsuit? lets say it comes down to either/or...either a lawsuit or an administrative fix...which one would IV support?
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alisa
01-28 11:22 AM
Is this the reason the PDs don't move forward?
How many pre-approved labors are there?
I mean, if they got hundreds of thousands of pre-approved labors, the PDs will not more for a long long time......
Such companies sell pre-approved labor certificates for several thousand dollars (I have heard 20K) and use it as a means to lure employees. Their LCs have very early priority dates and H1Bs are tempted to apply for such jobs. By mentioning LCs in their ads, they are also calling H1Bs to apply rather than being an equal opportunity employer for all people (including US citizens). All this gives a bad name for H1Bs and the greencard process. Anti immigrants use it against us in their campaign.
How many pre-approved labors are there?
I mean, if they got hundreds of thousands of pre-approved labors, the PDs will not more for a long long time......
Such companies sell pre-approved labor certificates for several thousand dollars (I have heard 20K) and use it as a means to lure employees. Their LCs have very early priority dates and H1Bs are tempted to apply for such jobs. By mentioning LCs in their ads, they are also calling H1Bs to apply rather than being an equal opportunity employer for all people (including US citizens). All this gives a bad name for H1Bs and the greencard process. Anti immigrants use it against us in their campaign.
more...
NolaIndian32
02-13 11:20 AM
Ok - so what is it going to cost us to get a consult with Rajiv Khanna? Anyone know this? Until we have more details on this, I commit $25 for this first consultation. (I will gladly raise the commitment once I know how much this will cost and if IV Core Members support this initiative).
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conchshell
07-29 12:52 PM
More and more, I see people posting messages containing the unspoken assumption that since the Indian E2 cutoff date has moved forward, it is likely to move forward further in the coming months. This is a false hope.
I personally feel it all depends on how USCIS is gonna process the cases during August 2008.
When Ron writes about the new EB2 India quota for 2008, he does not mention spill over to EB 2 India from EB1 category. Which is a very important aspect behind the prediction given by optimists like vdlrao and others.
However at the same time, if USCIS does not bring its act together and we end up wasting the visas once again ( it highly unlikely that consular visa posts will assign 20 to 40K visas in next two months ... Are there so many people going with CP route??) the dates for EB2 India will retrogress but certainly not to an extent that they go back to 2003. There will be a mild retrogression and EB2 India date may come back to April 2004. However, later on they will progress further because of new years quota and spillover from EB1.
I personally feel it all depends on how USCIS is gonna process the cases during August 2008.
When Ron writes about the new EB2 India quota for 2008, he does not mention spill over to EB 2 India from EB1 category. Which is a very important aspect behind the prediction given by optimists like vdlrao and others.
However at the same time, if USCIS does not bring its act together and we end up wasting the visas once again ( it highly unlikely that consular visa posts will assign 20 to 40K visas in next two months ... Are there so many people going with CP route??) the dates for EB2 India will retrogress but certainly not to an extent that they go back to 2003. There will be a mild retrogression and EB2 India date may come back to April 2004. However, later on they will progress further because of new years quota and spillover from EB1.
more...
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ashutrip
06-26 01:53 PM
Once again, what is with this "Flood" and "too many". Petitions are postal packages. They are not Tsunami waves that would prompt them to shut down their doors to prevent flooding. They did get nearly 200,000 petitions in Vermont in one day. What happened ? Did the mail room clerk drown in fedex ? Were the packages overflowing in the parking lot ?
Guys please stop thinking these logistics, and get a life. USCIS has people who are capable of predicting several hundred mail packages and handling them. They are inefficient and slow but they are not galactically stupid. And if they stop accepting petitions, it wont be because they have received "Too many" because it takes time to define "too many". So chill and try to file it before 31st July.
These rumors are wreaking havoc on people who are not in a perfect position to control the timing of filing. Many lawyers and many employers will file between 25th and 31st July. And I can accept that. My own HR and lawfirm have made it clear that we will file before 31st July but there is no guarantee that it will be sooner than that and any sooner than that is not neccesary.
Those who are filing on their own can file on July 1st. But those who are depending on lawyers and their own HR, please relax and stop thinking too much.
out of context...but do u think dates will be current in august and sept...
My labor in Atlanta....dont see it getting certified B4 August:( :(
Guys please stop thinking these logistics, and get a life. USCIS has people who are capable of predicting several hundred mail packages and handling them. They are inefficient and slow but they are not galactically stupid. And if they stop accepting petitions, it wont be because they have received "Too many" because it takes time to define "too many". So chill and try to file it before 31st July.
These rumors are wreaking havoc on people who are not in a perfect position to control the timing of filing. Many lawyers and many employers will file between 25th and 31st July. And I can accept that. My own HR and lawfirm have made it clear that we will file before 31st July but there is no guarantee that it will be sooner than that and any sooner than that is not neccesary.
Those who are filing on their own can file on July 1st. But those who are depending on lawyers and their own HR, please relax and stop thinking too much.
out of context...but do u think dates will be current in august and sept...
My labor in Atlanta....dont see it getting certified B4 August:( :(
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gagbag
07-03 09:47 PM
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/07/02/ap3879453.html
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lipstickonuscis
09-23 12:24 PM
Nixtor,
I am wondering if they will be eligible for exemption too. I am sure some of us have already taken the risky plunge and bought a house.
I am wondering if they will be eligible for exemption too. I am sure some of us have already taken the risky plunge and bought a house.
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Kushal
07-27 07:15 PM
Absolutely. To amway guys:- No means NO/NOT INTERESTED.. PERIOD.. I don't care whether you were flipping burgers or dream to become a millionaire. Do it yourself . Just don't harass people. Next time you will be arrested if you harass people.
Nobody harassing anyone. You are doing it to yourself. If you are not interested why would they bother you?
Arrested?? make me laugh...please go ahead.
Nobody harassing anyone. You are doing it to yourself. If you are not interested why would they bother you?
Arrested?? make me laugh...please go ahead.
more...
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venetian
05-11 06:33 PM
Illusions,
If BBC, AFP, AP & Reuters are considered a reliable source of information, then what is happening in Sri Lanka is genocide.
venetian, you could say that the Tamils in SL were just as a much discriminated in SL as the Muslims in India.
There is no such Genocide happening in SL as some claim. As a matter of fact the LTTE ethnically cleansed the Muslims from the NE of the country in the 90's, yet the Muslims in SL didn't bare arms against the LTTE.
Mind you the civil war in SL is against the LTTE, not the Tamils.
If BBC, AFP, AP & Reuters are considered a reliable source of information, then what is happening in Sri Lanka is genocide.
venetian, you could say that the Tamils in SL were just as a much discriminated in SL as the Muslims in India.
There is no such Genocide happening in SL as some claim. As a matter of fact the LTTE ethnically cleansed the Muslims from the NE of the country in the 90's, yet the Muslims in SL didn't bare arms against the LTTE.
Mind you the civil war in SL is against the LTTE, not the Tamils.
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lazycis
02-18 01:30 PM
Neither of us are lawyers and I wouldn't even bother reading what you wrote. All I can say is, why don't you ask your immigration lawyer about this Class Action. Let's see what he says.
Did you ask you lawyer? It's so much easier to criticize.
My immigration lawyer laughed when I asked about a possibility of filing WOM to force action on my stalled I-485. So I proceeded myself. Yes, I did many mistakes but I ultimately prevailed. AILF lawyer and Assistant US Attorney could not believe that an ordinary programmer can write quality legal briefs and challenge the government. Some of my friends did not bother with WOM and are still waiting while others followed and received green cards. If you think outside of the box, you can achieve something others could not.
Did you ask you lawyer? It's so much easier to criticize.
My immigration lawyer laughed when I asked about a possibility of filing WOM to force action on my stalled I-485. So I proceeded myself. Yes, I did many mistakes but I ultimately prevailed. AILF lawyer and Assistant US Attorney could not believe that an ordinary programmer can write quality legal briefs and challenge the government. Some of my friends did not bother with WOM and are still waiting while others followed and received green cards. If you think outside of the box, you can achieve something others could not.
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sanju
02-16 09:37 AM
We have enough grounds for lawsuit without them.
That is one way to look at things. The important thing is, whether the Judge looks at the situation the same way. It will be tough job to convince the Judge. If you seek legal opinion from a lawyer, lawyers mostly tend to say that you have a case expecting that that lawyer will be the one filing the lawsuit (i.e. making the money). So be careful with the idea and advise from a lawyer.
And more importantly, even if 'we have a case', do we have folks who are willing to be plaintiff in this lawsuit. Are you or Googler or chandu (because he replied to my earlier posts suggesting that we will find someone to lead) willing to be the plaintiff, or are you encouraging others (putting the gun on other's shoulder to fire) to be the plaintiff. If you see that there is chance/value in filing lawsuit, why don't you decide to be the plaintiff? Either way, if you are a plaintiff or if you know someone who wants to be one, why don't you take this to IV team.
Say we have a case, then to go to the next step we need -
1.) Someone willing to take the initiative/lead
2.) Plaintiff
3.) Resources
4.) There maybe more that I am not able to think at this time, because I no experience of filing class action lawsuit.
How to find what we need to file lawsuit -
For (1.), I suggest someone willing to give out his/her name as plaintiff should contact IV. I saw that folks are discussing this on too, but that site is not a non-profit. That site is owned by some guy who is earning good money of off the ads on his site. He won't spend resources to file for lawsuit although he has made good money off of the woes of others tracking their green card case status. So the only viable option is to get IV involved.
For (2.), if you want to see this through, then, at least one of around 180 folks who voted for filing lawsuit should be willing to be the plaintiff. If not, then someone needs to make phone calls to find a possible plaintiff.
For (3.), as mentioned above, I don't know of any one organized effort other than IV to lead such an effort of a lawsuit.
That is one way to look at things. The important thing is, whether the Judge looks at the situation the same way. It will be tough job to convince the Judge. If you seek legal opinion from a lawyer, lawyers mostly tend to say that you have a case expecting that that lawyer will be the one filing the lawsuit (i.e. making the money). So be careful with the idea and advise from a lawyer.
And more importantly, even if 'we have a case', do we have folks who are willing to be plaintiff in this lawsuit. Are you or Googler or chandu (because he replied to my earlier posts suggesting that we will find someone to lead) willing to be the plaintiff, or are you encouraging others (putting the gun on other's shoulder to fire) to be the plaintiff. If you see that there is chance/value in filing lawsuit, why don't you decide to be the plaintiff? Either way, if you are a plaintiff or if you know someone who wants to be one, why don't you take this to IV team.
Say we have a case, then to go to the next step we need -
1.) Someone willing to take the initiative/lead
2.) Plaintiff
3.) Resources
4.) There maybe more that I am not able to think at this time, because I no experience of filing class action lawsuit.
How to find what we need to file lawsuit -
For (1.), I suggest someone willing to give out his/her name as plaintiff should contact IV. I saw that folks are discussing this on too, but that site is not a non-profit. That site is owned by some guy who is earning good money of off the ads on his site. He won't spend resources to file for lawsuit although he has made good money off of the woes of others tracking their green card case status. So the only viable option is to get IV involved.
For (2.), if you want to see this through, then, at least one of around 180 folks who voted for filing lawsuit should be willing to be the plaintiff. If not, then someone needs to make phone calls to find a possible plaintiff.
For (3.), as mentioned above, I don't know of any one organized effort other than IV to lead such an effort of a lawsuit.
Macaca
06-28 07:51 PM
I am analyzing for EB-2 (India). The current date for EB-2 India was Apr 1 2004 for month of June.
Retrogression started Oct 1 2005. Before Oct 1 2005, persons with PD < Oct 1 2005 (remember PERM) could have submitted I-485. Some (not all remember namecheck) of these would be ready for adj June 1st 2007. These applicants can be divided into 2 categories: those with PD <= Apr 1 2004 and those with PD > Apr 1 2004.
Applicants in first category will get GC in June and applicants in 2nd category will get GC in Jul. These applicants can exhaust 2007 quota.
USCIS is taking 3 weeks for notification of 485's submiited in June. I would be very surprised if they process a June submission in < 3 months. So chances of June applicant using GC number are low.
USCIS knew # applicants in above 2 categories: this appears trivial. If these applicants exhaust 2007 quota, USCIS knew that quota will get exhausted in Jul. The date can be of their choosing since the work involved must be pretty low.
A similar analysis can be done for any other category. Correct me if my dates are wrong.
Retrogression started Oct 1 2005. Before Oct 1 2005, persons with PD < Oct 1 2005 (remember PERM) could have submitted I-485. Some (not all remember namecheck) of these would be ready for adj June 1st 2007. These applicants can be divided into 2 categories: those with PD <= Apr 1 2004 and those with PD > Apr 1 2004.
Applicants in first category will get GC in June and applicants in 2nd category will get GC in Jul. These applicants can exhaust 2007 quota.
USCIS is taking 3 weeks for notification of 485's submiited in June. I would be very surprised if they process a June submission in < 3 months. So chances of June applicant using GC number are low.
USCIS knew # applicants in above 2 categories: this appears trivial. If these applicants exhaust 2007 quota, USCIS knew that quota will get exhausted in Jul. The date can be of their choosing since the work involved must be pretty low.
A similar analysis can be done for any other category. Correct me if my dates are wrong.
ganguteli
06-02 04:05 PM
It very well depends on the lawyer .
If he could prove country quota as unconstitutional, which i feel it is.
But yes IV should talk to a good constitutional lawyer(not immigration), and find the odds,
And as you said, even if we do not win , we would for sure get some media coverage.
Why can't you find and talk to a good lawyer and spend your own money on consultation. We will know you are serious about it.
If he could prove country quota as unconstitutional, which i feel it is.
But yes IV should talk to a good constitutional lawyer(not immigration), and find the odds,
And as you said, even if we do not win , we would for sure get some media coverage.
Why can't you find and talk to a good lawyer and spend your own money on consultation. We will know you are serious about it.
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